以系統動力學角度分析健康碼對浙江控制新冠肺炎疫情之效用
張婕
摘要
為應對新冠疫情和解決調查人員流動困難等問題，浙江省政府依靠當下大數據資訊科技，成功開發出「健康碼」以追蹤人口流向和病毒擴散情況。2020 年初，隨著浙江省 與周邊省份逐漸解除居家隔離，目前健康碼已經被廣泛使用，然而現有文獻缺乏對健康碼在疫情防控中的作用之研究。為填補研究空白，本研究SEIR 模型檢驗健康碼在浙江 省疫情控制之效用，在兩種不同情境下：普通病毒和變異病毒，對兩種不同的政策進行模擬：健康碼和疫苗。經過與實際數據對比和情境模擬後，本研究發現：在面對普通病毒和變異病毒時，健康碼對阻擋病毒傳播都具有一定效果，但在面對傳染力更強的變異病毒時，需要同時延長健康碼的隔離時間才足以應對；而注射疫苗的感染人數高於升級版健康碼。對此，本研究認為：疫苗技術有限無法預測下一波病毒變異的方向；而民眾對於疫苗的錯誤認知而忽略了其他防護措施，人群接觸時的感染風險也相應上升，從而導致了注射疫苗後感染人數上升的結果。本研究亦存在不足，如未將居家隔離政策和人口數量持續改變的情況考慮在內。本研究認為如果未來研究能改善上述不足，對疫情的模擬會更加準確和具參考價值。
關鍵詞：系統動力學、SEIR 模型、政策模擬、新冠疫情、健康碼
Analysis of the Effectiveness of Health Code in Covid-19 in Zhejiang Province from the Perspective of System Dynamics
ZHANG, Jie
Abstract
In response to the new epidemic and to address the difficulties in the mobility of investigators, the government of Zhejiang Province has successfully developed "health codes" to track population movement and the spread of the virus, relying on current big data information technology. To fill the gap, this study examines the effectiveness of health codes in the control of epidemics in Zhejiang Province using the SEIR model to simulate two different policies: health codes and vaccines, in two different scenarios: common and mutated viruses. After comparing the actual data and scenarios, the study found that the health code was effective in blocking the spread of the virus for both the common virus and the mutant virus, but in the case of the more infectious mutant virus, it was necessary to extend the isolation time of the health code to cope with it; and the number of infections was higher with the vaccine than with the upgraded health code. The study concluded that the limited vaccine technology could not predict the direction of the next wave of virus mutation, and that the misconception of the vaccine and the neglect of other protective measures increased the risk of infection during population exposure, resulting in an increase in the number of infections after vaccination. The study also has shortcomings, such as not taking into account home isolation policies and changing population sizes. It is believed that if these weaknesses are addressed in future studies, the modelling of the epidemic will be more accurate and informative.
Keywords: System Dynamics Analysis, SEIR Model, Policy Simulation, Covid-19, Health Code
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