國軍志願役教育召集訓練動態評估模式
王俊泰、廖東山、白東岳、郭壽齡、蘇民
摘要
中國多次進行軍事活動、戰機擾台和訓練，對台海情勢日趨嚴峻。當國家面臨戰爭威脅的存續性時，動員召集之後備軍人戰力是守護國土家園最後一道防線。本研究的目的在於構建國軍志願役教育召集訓練及其關係之系統動態模型，用以教育召集訓練相關政策的演化趨勢與互動關係。本研究依據相關關係的結構關係，推演出：（1）申請國軍志願留營、入營管道與國軍現員總人數之因果回饋環路；（2）平均屆滿服役年限退伍總人數與後備軍人總人數之因果回饋環路；（3）國軍人才招募中心每年招募總人數與國軍現員總人數之因果回饋環路。通過對政策的解讀與模擬分析，本研究發現，入營管道與國軍現員總人數之因果回饋環路、平均屆滿服役年限退伍總人數與後備軍人總人數之因果回饋環路會受到國軍人才招募中心每年招募總人數與國軍現員總人數之因果回饋環路遞減環路影響。另外，在平均動員可獲得人數比率成長時，國軍現員總人數、國軍人才招募中心每年招募總人數、平均屆滿服役年限退伍總人數、申請國軍志願留營、入營管道、國軍後備戰力人員總數雖無明顯成長情況。本研究所建構系統動態模型有助於了解教育召集訓練基於對後備戰力所形成的循環迴路關係。本研究建議，此模型可作為政府在國防政策的制定與實施，以及招募志願人力與教育召集訓練評估的參考。進一步，此一系統動態模型也可作為其他國家制定相關政策的參考。
關鍵詞：國軍人才招募中心、後備軍人、動員召集、系統動態學、模擬分析
Dynamic Evaluation Model for Active Duty for Training of Armed Forces Volunteers
Jyun-tai Wang, Tung-shan Liao, Tung-Yueh Pai, Shou-ling Guo, Min Su
Abstract
China has launched many military activities, and its fighter planes have been trained to disrupt Taiwan, which poses increasing threats to the situation in the Taiwan Strait. When the country is facing the continuity of the threat of war, mobilizing and convening reserve soldiers is the last line of defense to protect the homeland. The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamic model of active duty for training of armed forces volunteers and its relationships, which can be used to investigate evolution trend and interactive relationship of active duty for training-related policies. Based on the structural relationship of the relevant relationships, this study deduced: (1) The causal loop between the total number of military personnel applying for voluntary stay in the military camp, the military entry channels and the total number of current military personnel; (2) the causal loop between the total number of veterans at the average expiration of military service and the total number of reserve soldiers; (3) the causal loop between the total number of recruits per year by the Recruitment Center of National Armed Forces and total number of current military personnel. Through the interpretation and simulation analysis of the policy, this study found that the causal loop between military entry channels and total number of current military personnel and the causal loop between the total number of veterans at the average expiration of military service and the total number of reserve soldiers are affected by the decrement causal loop between the total number of recruits per year by the Recruitment Center of National Armed Forces and total number of current military personnel. In addition, when the average number of reserve soldiers mobilized increases, there are no significant growth in the total number of current military personnel, the total number of recruits per year by the Recruitment Center of National Armed Forces, total number of veterans at the average expiration of military service, total number of military personnel applying for voluntary stay in the military camp, military entry channels, and total number of reserve soldiers. The system dynamics model developed in this study is helpful to understand the causal loop relationship formed by active duty for training based on the reserve forces. This study suggests that this model can be used as a reference for the government to develop and implement national defense policies, as well as to recruit volunteer manpower and evaluate active duty for training. Furthermore, this system dynamics model can also be used as a reference for other countries to develop relevant policies.
Keywords: Recruitment Center of National Armed Forces, Reserve Soldiers, Mobilization,System Dynamics, Simulation Analysis
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Accepted: